Visualizing Performance – Dean & Deluca Invitational

May 25, 2016 at 12:56 pm

This is article is meant to be used in conjunction with the fantasy golf projections. The figures below are a visual aid that I use to help make lineup decisions. They are a quick and intuitive way to view the likely range of outcomes. EXPLANATION OF THE PLOTS Below are box plots of the most recent 50 rounds for the top half of the field in the Dean & Deluca Invitational, in order of expected score to par. Each round is adjusted for field strength and standardized; these are apples to apples comparisons. Unlike the parameterized model that I use to […]

Vegas Lines – AT&T Byron Nelson 2016

May 18, 2016 at 10:19 pm

My experiment comparing my projected odd to win on the PGA against the Vegas odds continues this week. Find my full writep on RotoViz. Last week I recommended betting on Jason Day (+1100) and Jimmy Walker (+6600) to win . Day won and Walker finished dead last – one week, one win. This week I’m back on Walker (+5000). I also like Brandt Snedeker (+3500) and Chez Reavie (+17500). They look like the best bets. Simply put, anything in the far right column in green is a bet with positive expectation. Darker green = better bet. Odds are taken from Bovada. The juice is […]

Vegas Lines – The Players Championship 2016

May 11, 2016 at 2:17 pm

This is just a quick comparison of my projected win percentage compared with the Las Vegas lines for The Players Championship. Jason Day and Jimmy Walker look like +EV bets. Listed below are odds to win The Players Championship on as of Wednesday afternoon May 11. In column C, I converted the odds into their implied win percentage, i.e. based on posted odds how often would the golfer need to win in order to break even on the bet. The sum total of all the implied win percentages is 146%. If the odds were fair the sum would be 100%. Bovada […]

Results – Wells Fargo Championship 2016

May 8, 2016 at 9:42 pm

Summary James Hahn won the Wells Fargo Championship. He was a 500-1 underdog to win the tournament, using odds from He was owned by very few people on DraftKings, about 0.2% ownership depending on the tournament. Roberto Castro, who finished second, was a 250-1 underdog to win the tournament and was roughly 4% owned on DraftKings. Otherwise there were many familiar names near the top of the leaderboard: Rose, McIlroy, Mickelson and Fowler. My rankings did quite well. They were a much better predictor of fantasy points scored than either DraftKings salaries or Las Vegas lines. I will explain […]

Visualizing Field Strength – Wells Fargo Championship 2016

May 3, 2016 at 12:53 pm

The following are Box plots of the most recent normalized adjusted scores for the top half of the field at the Wells Fargo Championship. The golfers are plotted in order of their expected score from the previous post. Clicking on each image will take you to the plot – click the “Full Screen” button in the top right for a full screen version. Box plots are a quick way to show the quartiles of each player’s playing history. Each dot above a player’s name represents an adjusted normalized round score. Normalized adjusted scores are agnostic to field strength and course difficulty.  The […]

Fantasy Golf Projections – Wells Fargo Championship 2016

May 3, 2016 at 2:56 am

What follows are my projections for the Wells Fargo Championship, May 5-8, 2016. I projected chance to win, chance to make the cut and expected DraftKings points. The projections were made thusly: Using every complete round played on the PGA tour from 2010-2016, I calculated the z score  for each golfer described in detail here. I assumed that golf scores are normally distributed, and then standardized them. I took each player’s score (${X}$) subtracted the mean of all players for that round (${\mu}$) and divided by the standard deviation of that round (${\sigma}$). If you’ve taken stats you might recognize this equation: […]