# Results – Wells Fargo Championship 2016

**Summary**

James Hahn won the Wells Fargo Championship. He was a 500-1 underdog to win the tournament, using odds from Bovada.com. He was owned by very few people on DraftKings, about 0.2% ownership depending on the tournament. Roberto Castro, who finished second, was a 250-1 underdog to win the tournament and was roughly 4% owned on DraftKings. Otherwise there were many familiar names near the top of the leaderboard: Rose, McIlroy, Mickelson and Fowler.

My rankings did quite well. They were a much better predictor of fantasy points scored than either DraftKings salaries or Las Vegas lines. I will explain how I came to that conclusion below.

**Analysis**

There are not a lot of fantasy golf projections available on the web to which I can compare my rankings. I decided to compare my rankings to the two most well-known – DraftKings salaries and the Las Vegas lines.

DraftKings salaries are good predictors of fantasy performance on average. I used DraftKings data from the 2015 and 2016 seasons to construct the graph below (I filtered out the very high and very low salaries). The graph clearly shows that as salary increases, so does the average fantasy points scored by players with that salary. Fitting a regression line to this data gives an R-squared value of 0.80, which means that DraftKings salary explains about 80% of the variation in the average fantasy points scored.

I think it goes without saying that the Las Vegas odds are good predictors. At the bottom of the post, I listed the odds to win the Wells Fargo Championship according to Bovada.com as of Thursday morning before the tournament. The odds to win the tournament are not the same thing as who will score more fantasy points, but we should expect the two to be very highly correlated, and they are – for this week DK salary is 83.4% correlated with Las Vegas Odds.

I used the same algorithm that fantasypros.com uses to score the experts that provide fantasy advice for the NFL, NBA, etc. Unfortunately, FantasyPros does not have a PGA section, so I’m left to do this on my own. I took the three rankings listed in the table below: my rankings, DK salaries and Vegas lines, and I ran them through the scoring system.

The FantasyPros scoring system, called PAY, focuses only on meaningful recommendations. It starts with all possible combinations of players, 10585 in this case, and creates a start-or-sit recommendation, i.e. which one of these players should I start or sit, for each combination. If all three rankings agree on the start-or-sit recommendation, that combination is removed from the data set. For example, all 3 rankings agreed that you should start Rory McIlroy over Dawie van der Walt. Therefore, this combination was removed because it doesn’t tell us anything about which ranking system was better and the recommendation is obvious. After all of the unanimous recommendations were removed there were 3526 combinations left.

The system then takes each of those remaining recommendations and calculates the number of points you would have gained if you made every correct recommendation. For instance, I recommended Phil Mickelson over Justin Rose, DK and Vegas both recommended the opposite. Mickelson scored 94 points and Rose scored 92, therefore I earned 2 points for the correct recommendation and the others earned zero. A score of 100% would mean that you made every correct call.

To calculate a final score, the system takes the number of points that you earned and divides it by the total number of possible points you could have earned if you made every correct call. An explanation of the algorithm can be found here.

**Conclusion**

My final score was 61.14%. DraftKings Salary score was 45.48% and the Vegas odds scored 44.02%.

This is only one week worth of data, but I completely crushed the other 2 scoring systems. If you followed my recommendations over the others, you would have had a roughly 15% advantage. In gambling, a 15% advantage is huge. Most casino games have about a 5% house advantage or below.

On FantasyPros, the scores for the best experts in the NFL are generally in the high 50s, see here. So, my projections are in line with how experts in the NFL score.

If you want to run the calculations yourself, I have attached a csv file of the data I used to generate the scores and the code for the program that does the scoring. Just copy the code into a Pyhton 3 interpreter and change the path to wherever the ‘WFChampResults’ file is stored on your machine.

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Wells Fargo Championship | BovadaOdds |

Rory McIlroy | +400 |

Rickie Fowler | +1400 |

Adam Scott | +1800 |

Henrik Stenson | +2000 |

Justin Rose | +2000 |

Hideki Matsuyama | +2200 |

Patrick Reed | +2500 |

Phil Mickelson | +2500 |

J.B. Holmes | +2500 |

Byeong-Hun An | +3300 |

Daniel Berger | +3500 |

Kevin Chappell | +4000 |

Paul Casey | +4000 |

Justin Thomas | +5000 |

Jamie Lovemark | +5000 |

Bryson DeChambeau | +5500 |

Charles Howell III | +5500 |

Kevin Kisner | +5500 |

Gary Woodland | +6000 |

Bill Haas | +6000 |

Jason Kokrak | +6600 |

Tony Finau | +6600 |

Luke Donald | +6600 |

Patton Kizzire | +6600 |

Ryan Moore | +6600 |

Webb Simpson | +6600 |

Graham DeLaet | +6600 |

Patrick Rodgers | +8000 |

Danny Lee | +8000 |

Brendan Steele | +9000 |

Emiliano Grillo | +10000 |

Martin Kaymer | +10000 |

Shane Lowry | +10000 |

Kevin Streelman | +10000 |

Jim Furyk | +10000 |

Jhonattan Vegas | +12500 |

Harris English | +12500 |

Lucas Glover | +12500 |

Ian Poulter | +12500 |

Jamie Donaldson | +12500 |

William McGirt | +12500 |

Harold Varner | +15000 |

Luke List | +15000 |

Ollie Schniederjans | +15000 |

Sean O’Hair | +15000 |

Jason Bohn | +15000 |

John Senden | +15000 |

Will Wilcox | +15000 |

Scott Brown | +15000 |

David Lingmerth | +15000 |

Ben Martin | +15000 |

Robert Streb | +15000 |

Jonas Blixt | +15000 |

Anirban Lahiri | +15000 |

Daniel Summerhays | +15000 |

Francesco Molinari | +15000 |

George McNeill | +15000 |

Martin Laird | +17500 |

Bobby Wyatt | +17500 |

Cameron Tringale | +17500 |

Scott Stallings | +20000 |

Si Woo Kim | +20000 |

Geoff Ogilvy | +20000 |

Matt Jones | +20000 |

Ricky Barnes | +20000 |

Brian Stuard | +20000 |

Colt Knost | +20000 |

Spencer Levin | +20000 |

David Hearn | +20000 |

Shawn Stefani | +20000 |

Cameron Smith | +20000 |

Chesson Hadley | +20000 |

David Toms | +20000 |

Boo Weekley | +20000 |

Morgan Hoffmann | +22500 |

Padraig Harrington | +25000 |

Kyle Reifers | +25000 |

Brian Harman | +25000 |

Kyle Stanley | +25000 |

Johnson Wagner | +25000 |

Adam Hadwin | +25000 |

Roberto Castro | +25000 |

Stewart Cink | +25000 |

Stuart Appleby | +25000 |

Nick Taylor | +25000 |

Camilo Villegas | +25000 |

Ernie Els | +25000 |

Sung-hoon Kang | +25000 |

Retief Goosen | +25000 |

Chad Collins | +25000 |

Chris Stroud | +25000 |

Blayne Barber | +25000 |

Meen Whee Kim | +25000 |

Zac Blair | +25000 |

Michael Kim | +25000 |

Henrik Norlander | +30000 |

Jonathan Byrd | +30000 |

Brendon De Jonge | +30000 |

Jim Herman | +30000 |

Chad Campbell | +30000 |

Scott Langley | +30000 |

Fabian Gomez | +30000 |

Michael Thompson | +30000 |

Will MacKenzie | +30000 |

Ben Crane | +30000 |

Peter Malnati | +30000 |

Tom Hoge | +30000 |

Vijay Singh | +30000 |

Andrew Loupe | +30000 |

Bronson Burgoon | +30000 |

Jeff Overton | +30000 |

Mark Wilson | +30000 |

Rory Sabbatini | +30000 |

Alex Cejka | +30000 |

Derek Fathauer | +30000 |

Erik Compton | +30000 |

Jason Gore | +30000 |

Bud Cauley | +30000 |

Tyler Aldridge | +30000 |

Hunter Mahan | +35000 |

Angel Cabrera | +40000 |

Vaughn Taylor | +40000 |

Scott Pinckney | +40000 |

Davis Love III | +40000 |

Derek Ernst | +40000 |

Greg Owen | +40000 |

Hiroshi Iwata | +50000 |

Matt Every | +50000 |

Brian Gay | +50000 |

James Hahn | +50000 |

Steve Wheatcroft | +50000 |

Carlos Ortiz | +50000 |

D.A. Points | +50000 |

Brendon Todd | +50000 |

Tim Wilkinson | +50000 |

Corey Nagy | +50000 |

Andres Gonzales | +50000 |

Rob Oppenheim | +50000 |

Steve Marino | +50000 |

Steven Bowditch | +50000 |

Sam Saunders | +50000 |

Mark Hubbard | +60000 |

Brett Stegmaier | +60000 |

J.J. Henry | +75000 |

Justin Hicks | +75000 |

Tyrone Van Aswegen | +75000 |

Mackenzie Hughes | +75000 |

Blake Olsen | +100000 |

Ethan Tracey | +100000 |

Dawie Van Der Walt | +100000 |

Trevor Immelman | +100000 |

Kelly Mitchum | +125000 |

Robert Allenby | +125000 |

Matt Dobyns | +150000 |

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