Vegas Lines – The Players Championship 2016

May 11, 2016 at 2:17 pm

This is just a quick comparison of my projected win percentage compared with the Las Vegas lines for The Players Championship. Jason Day and Jimmy Walker look like +EV bets.

Listed below are odds to win The Players Championship on as of Wednesday afternoon May 11. In column C, I converted the odds into their implied win percentage, i.e. based on posted odds how often would the golfer need to win in order to break even on the bet. The sum total of all the implied win percentages is 146%. If the odds were fair the sum would be 100%. Bovada is collecting about 31.5% juice on these bets (1- (100/146)). Dividing the ‘ImpliedWin’ column by 146% removes the effect of the juice resulting in column D, ‘JuiceAdjustedImplWin’, which is in effect what Bovada implies are the actual odds for each golfer to win. Notice that the juice most heavily effects the top – the most likely outcomes. Column E is my projected win percentage. Column F is the difference between my win percentage and the ‘Implied Win’ column. I converted my win percentage to ‘MyOdds’ in column G.

Column F is the most interesting. Any positive number is good, a positive expectation bet, at least based on my projections. The two best are Jason Day and Jimmy Walker. Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Brandt Snedeker are also decent looking bets.

The juice is sky-high on these bets, 31.5%, similar to what you might find on a Keno game or the lottery. It makes me think that Bovada makes money because the juice is so high on these lines, not because the lines are sharp. In other words, I think Bovada might be floating the occasional bad line that can be exploited. My fantasy golf rankings outperformed the Vegas lines last week. Maybe my projected win percentage can too. Stay tuned.