# Fantasy Golf Projections – Wells Fargo Championship 2016

May 3, 2016 at 2:56 am

What follows are my projections for the Wells Fargo Championship, May 5-8, 2016. I projected chance to win, chance to make the cut and expected DraftKings points.

1. Using every complete round played on the PGA tour from 2010-2016, I calculated the z score  for each golfer described in detail here. I assumed that golf scores are normally distributed, and then standardized them. I took each player’s score (${X}$) subtracted the mean of all players for that round (${\mu}$) and divided by the standard deviation of that round (${\sigma}$). If you’ve taken stats you might recognize this equation: ${(X – \mu) / \sigma}$. A negative z score is good – it means your score is below average, which is good in golf.
3. I calculated the 50 score moving average of adjusted z scores (${\theta}$) and the standard deviation of those scores (${s}$).
4. I found the average score and standard deviation for the Wells Fargo Championship over the last five years. I took the two parameters for each player from 3, ${\theta}$ and ${s}$, and scaled them to fit the current tournament.
5. Then using a monte carlo simulation, I played the tournament 20,000 times. I used the tournament specific ${\theta}$ and ${s}$ for each player to randomly determine their scores.